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Transboundary Water Diplomacy

Indus Waters Treaty, Regional Stability, and Future Negotiations

Water is not only a domestic development concern for Pakistan, it is a critical element of regional diplomacy and national security. With the Indus River system shared among Pakistan, India, China, and Afghanistan, transboundary water management is increasingly shaped by geopolitical tensions, upstream infrastructure competition, and growing climate volatility.

This subsection analyzes the shifting landscape of transboundary water relations, with a focus on the Indus Waters Treaty, upstream risks, and emerging strategic considerations. It calls for a transition from reactive engagement to proactive water diplomacy, embedding water negotiations into broader foreign policy, economic cooperation, and security strategies.

Key Areas of Focus

• ■ Indus Waters Treaty: Framework and Current Stress Points
  Assessment of the 1960 treaty’s foundational structure, dispute resolution mechanisms, data sharing protocols, and emerging areas of strain between Pakistan and India.
• ■ India’s Upstream Infrastructure and Treaty Dynamics
  Review of India’s dam and hydropower construction on the western rivers, examining the technical, legal, and political implications for downstream flows and treaty compliance.
• ■ China and the Upper Indus Basin
  Exploration of China’s strategic position on the upper Indus in Tibet, its glacier-fed water sources, and implications for data transparency, forecasting, and regional power dynamics.
• ■ Afghanistan and the Kabul River Corridor
  Analysis of Pakistan’s evolving relationship with Afghanistan on the shared Kabul River, and the need for a bilateral framework to manage future storage projects, seasonal flows, and cooperative water use.
• ■ Climate Change and Treaty Resilience
  Examination of how glacier retreat, flow variability, and extreme weather events are challenging the assumptions of existing legal frameworks, including the treaty’s long-term adaptability.
• ■ Strategic Water Diplomacy
  Proposal for an integrated approach to water diplomacy that aligns with national security, regional peacebuilding, and trade negotiations, supported by multilateral engagement and technical expertise.
• ■ Institutional Readiness and Negotiation Capacity
  Recommendations to strengthen Pakistan’s institutional capacity for water diplomacy, including expert negotiators, international law advisors, hydrologists, and regional intelligence coordination.

This subsection positions transboundary water governance as a core pillar of Pakistan’s foreign and security policy, demanding foresight, regional cooperation, and institutional strength to safeguard national interests in a changing geopolitical and climate environment.